Government Will Save Us - Some people seem to think that a whole raft of new federal or state government programs and regulations can be passed and will produce the changes we need. The record does not support such faith. Until our elected representatives can work together again, they aren't likely to do enough for communities in distress. But it is worse than that. What would be needed under a "government saves us" scenario would include a ton of money, meaning a lot of new taxes. Good luck with that too. Government could help, but that would require smart, effective programs, policies and regulations not diluted and fatally compromised by lobbyists and special pleaders. That in turn would require a top-to-bottom revitalization of government integrity. Corruption is now so embedded in our system (much of it legal and in plain sight) that restoring integrity must be viewed as a long-term project. A final reason not to put too much faith in higher levels of government is that with the stresses coming, reactionary politicians will push to the front and a frightened electorate will be tempted to turn to "strong" leaders out of desperation and anger (see Russia and the rise of Putin, or pre-Nazi Germany and the rise of Hitler, or countless other examples). We should have learned by now (see the federal government from Reagan to today) that we cannot count on policy or funding consistency from the federal government, so building local community plans based on assumptions about what the federal government will do over the decades ahead may not be the wisest course for communities focused on thriving in the future.

Corporations Will Save Us - Some people think that the efficiency and drive for growth of corporations will produce helpful results. Again, the record does not support too much optimism. Corporations are in it for themselves (in spite of the good intentions of some corporate executives). Many obviously have little loyalty to the communities and employees they have abandoned in their search for higher profits. Instead, they have relocated to be near the cheapest and most exploitable workers. What corporations mainly seem to do is rig the rules of the game to their advantage while at the same time avoiding and evading taxes from all levels of government. Their influence in the rule and regulation making process, extending from the politicians to the administrative staff, is so great that many observers simply summarize by saying that corporations have "captured" effective control of parts of our national government and similarly captured many state governments. Corporate governance reforms could greatly improve corporate alignment with the public interest, but to implement such reforms would require a federal government that is less polarized and dysfunctional. That obviously isn't something we should count on anytime soon.

Technology Will Save Us - Many seem to harbor this belief. The history of dire predictions about the future is studded with examples of new technologies saving the day (or seeming to). From the Green Revolution preventing famine to the modern refinement of fracking preventing an immanent oil shortage, there is a long history of dire problems seemingly solved (or reduced or postponed) by technology. Today, encouraging news about renewable electricity and the potential electrification of almost everything, combined with the potential of some of the carbon capture techniques to work, are leading optimists everywhere to believe a technical solution to the climate crisis is evolving. Technical developments and possibilities are certainly encouraging, but few objective observers believe that even the most promising of these technologies can be scaled as quickly as needed without significant ongoing intervention in the energy markets. Further, even if we displace oil in transportation and industry entirely and make our buildings energy neutral, these steps will be inadequate to forestall climate deterioration. And none of this discussion touches on artificial intelligence, robotics, Orwellian state surveillance systems, genetic engineering, and many other advanced technologies being developed today. Technology could do more good than harm, but only if technology decisions aren't guided primarily by short-term profit maximization. If we leave most important technology decisions in the hands of corporations, with governance rules and corporate charters as they are today, technology will prospectively do more harm than good. See a more detailed discussion of technology in Cooperation Is The Path.

The Invisible Hand Of The Market Will Save Us - There is much merit to the notion that markets could be useful, and may be essential, for our adaptation and wellbeing. But today the invisible hand is rendered deaf, dumb and blind by an epidemic of market rigging so pervasive as to make many of the traditional claims about market benefits to society hollow at best and outright ridiculous at worst. To make markets work to our advantage, subsidies would have to be removed and externalities fully priced in. Companies with too much market power would have to be broken up. Again, these reforms could only happen in a politically functional system, so until or unless our polarization and paralysis are resolved, markets will often push in the rigged direction. It doesn't have to be this way, but a corrupted politics makes other outcomes unlikely.

The Elites Will Step In And Save Us - This has happened before. The New Deal was a project of an elite faction. But not this time. Today they aren't stepping in to save us, but instead they are stepping out to save themselves. Maybe not quite The Hunger Games or Elysium just yet, but gated communities, private islands, private jets, and private guards and security services have become standard equipment for the rich. It would appear that noblesse oblige is dead. The rich appear to feel little obligation to care for the safety or welfare of the rest of us. Like the corporations they largely control, they appear (with some honorable and notable exceptions) to care mostly about themselves. What about their children, you ask? Their response is mostly to leave their kids so rich that they will be able to pay lavishly to try to get out of harm's way.

American Voters Will Wake Up And Save Us - This idea is simply that when things get bad enough people will wake up and act politically to fix things. There are two problems with this idea. The first is that even if things do play out this way, the awakening may come too late to cope successfully with the most urgent threats. But there is an even more basic problem with this scenario. When things get bad, people become both afraid and angry. As outlined above, history shows that these conditions are as likely to produce an autocrat as a constructive democratic leader, and the autocrat isn't likely to be a good guy working on the side of the angels. Still, this is one of the more promising pathways, and as laid out elsewhere, this can work out if people get active now and focus sufficient efforts locally. Waiting passively for a national level awakening is almost certainly a false hope destined to yield disappointment and pain.

A Great Leader Will Arise To Save Us - This is a child-like wish that is as likely to produce Trump-like figures as it is to yield someone who would actually lead constructively. This scenario has promise, but just wishing for it is akin to wishing for a miracle. We could elect great, or at least good, leaders. But electing leaders who would or could do what we need done would depend on fixing our political system from top to bottom.